The CoRisk Index

Industry risks in times of Covid-19

While the coronavirus spreads around the world, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations have plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the expected economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with cyclical and fiscal policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are suffering the most from the unfolding economic crisis.

The CoRisk-Index

We introduce the CoRisk-Index. It is the first economic indicator of industry-specific risk assessments related to Covid-19.

Currently, we offer these visualisations:

  1. The CoRisk-Index : A compound measure of risk perceptions per industry over time.
  2. Text Sentiment: The share of negative words in Corona-related sentences and the overall reports.
  3. Industry View: The share of firms reporting corona-related risk factors.
  4. Topic Heatmap: Sentences mentioning risk-topics, per 1.000 corona-related sentences (based on relevant keywords).

Explore the different visualisations on the upper tab to see how different industries perceive business risks related Covid-19. Select specific industries on the right-hand panel and feel free to download the index data as a csv-file.

Code, Data and a Detailed Documentation to replicate the CoRisk-Index

http://github.com/Braesemann/CoRisk

Disclaimer

The CoRisk index is currently work in progress.

The index requires constant revision as the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds. We are regularly retrieving new information from businesses to keep the CoRisk-Index updated and accurate.

For questions and feedback, feel free to reach out to us.

About the CoRisk-Index

The CoRisk-Index is a data-mining approach to measure the industry-specific risks perceptions related to Covid-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This data allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings show that the companies’ awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments by weeks. The risk reports differ substantially between industries, both in magnitude and in nature. Based on natural language processing techniques, we identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. The approach allows to distinguish the industries by their reported risk awareness towards Covid-19.

Read more about the methodology behind the CoRisk-Index here.

The CoRisk-Index in the media

The CoRisk-Index has been featured in:

Furthermore, the CoRisk-Index was presented in seminars and webinars at:

The CoRisk Paper

The development of the CoRisk-Index is described in a working paper:

The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific business risks related to COVID-19 in real-time.

About the authors of the CoRisk Paper

The CoRisk paper is a collaboration of researchers based in Oxford and Berlin, including researchers from institutions like the Oxford Internet Institute (University of Oxford), Saïd Business School (University of Oxford), Centre for Digital Governance/Data Science Lab (Hertie School Berlin), and Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society:

Fabian Stephany | Niklas Stoehr | Philipp Darius | Leonie Neuhäuser | Ole Teutloff | Fabian Braesemann (corresponding author).